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Author: Seth Pfaehler

Most Experts Are Not Worried About a Recession

Homebuyers are watching the economy closely, and for good reason. Buying a home is one of the biggest purchases most people ever make. And some recession talk in the media has made a lot of would-be buyers second guess their plans.

In the latest LendingTree survey, almost 2 in 3 Americans said they think a recession is coming. And 74% of respondents say that’s having an impact on their financial decisions.

But here’s the good news: the experts aren’t nearly as concerned.

Most Americans Expect a Recession, But Most Experts Don’t

According to an October report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), only 1 in 3 experts surveyed say we may be headed for a recession sometime in the next 12 months (see graph below):

a blue and grey pie chartIf the expert economists aren’t super worried, should you be? We’re not in a recession right now. And there’s no guarantee we’re heading into one.

What we do have is uncertainty – and the best way to handle that is by leaning on facts, not fear. You can do that by making sure you have the information you need to make an informed decision.

Tips for Buying a Home During Periods of Economic Uncertainty

Here’s the best advice anyone can give right now. While it’s important to keep an eye on what’s happening in the economy, that shouldn’t necessarily overshadow your real-life needs. Economic shifts come and go, but the reasons people buy homes rarely change. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“Well-prepared buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are likely motivated by personal and lifestyle needs like growing families, new jobs, or retirement. And these considerations can outweigh short-term economic uncertainties . . . ”

Timing your move around real life (not the news cycle) is what matters most.

But here’s the key. If you’re going to buy a home right now, job stability really matters. You need to feel confident in your income and know you can comfortably manage your mortgage payments, even if your situation or the economy shift.

If your job is secure and you’ve built a cushion of savings, experts say you don’t necessarily need to delay. Just keep these tips from the economists at Redfin in mind:

  • Set a budget and stick to it: Don’t overextend. Make sure your payments are affordable and your savings can cover any surprises. This includes factoring in costs likely to rise, like home insurance and taxes.
  • Negotiate: There are more homes for sale right now, and other buyers may pull back because of their own fears. That gives you more negotiating power when working with sellers. Use it to get the best deal possible.
  • Be strategic about payments and mortgage rates: Talk to lenders about what payment you can afford and the rate you can qualify for today, as well as your options if rates go down later on.
  • Consider selling before you buy: If you already own a home, selling first can reduce the financial pressure and help solidify your budget for your next home.

But nothing replaces the value of having a trusted team around you, especially right now. As Bankrate says:

“Buying a home during a recession can sometimes be a good idea – but only for people who are lucky enough to remain financially stable . . . Be sure to enlist the help of an experienced local real estate agent. Not only do agents know their markets well, they will also work to get you the best deal in any given situation, including a recession.”

Bottom Line

Most Americans think a recession is coming. But most experts don’t.

So, you don’t necessarily have to put your moving plans on hold. If your finances are solid, your job is stable, and you have a real need to move, you can still make this happen. You just need the right team of pros by your side. 

What’s holding you back from making your next move? Connect with a local agent and lender to talk it over.

The Top 2 Things Homeowners Need To Know Before Selling

Here’s something you should know before you sell your house. The homeowners who win in today’s market aren’t the ones waiting it out or stepping back. They’re the ones who adapt from the start.

A number of homeowners this year didn’t get the outcome they wanted. But it’s not because something’s wrong with the market. It’s because something wasn’t right with their expectations.

Realtor.com reports 57% more homes have been taken off the market compared to last year. That means they listed… but didn’t sell. But here’s the honest truth. It was mostly because of two things: price and timing.

And if the seller had come in with the right mindset on each, their sale would’ve gone differently. Here are the top 2 things you can learn from those other sellers.

1. Price It Right from Day 1

Let’s start with the most common sticking point: the asking price. Today, 8 in 10 sellers expect to get their asking price or more. But that confidence doesn’t always line up with reality.

According to Redfin, only 1 in 4 (25.3%) sellers are actually getting more than their list price.

a blue and grey circle with white textAnd here’s where the mismatch is coming from.

A few years ago, you could set any price and buyers would come running, no matter what the price tag said. Odds are, you’d still sell for over asking. But things are different now.

Buyers have more options than they’ve had in years, so they can afford to be more selective. If your price feels even a little high to them, it’ll get overlooked in a heartbeat.

And for the homeowners who had that happen, some end up pulling their listings instead of making a simple adjustment that could have changed everything. Which is a shame, honestly. Because a small price tweak is usually all it takes to bring buyers in and get the deal done.

According to HousingWire, the average price cut right now is just 4%.

Think about that. Other sellers are listing too high and giving up rather than dropping their price 4%. If they’d just started 4% lower, they may have already sold. So, before you list, talk to your agent about what’s working nearby. They’ll help you find the sweet spot that’s competitive, realistic, and still protecting your bottom line.

And here’s the kicker. If you’ve been in your home for a while, your equity gives you room to set your list price more competitively and still come out way ahead. Unfortunately, those other sellers didn’t seem to realize that.

2. Don’t Rush the Process

Another common misstep: expecting your house to sell in a weekend.

Many sellers right now remember when homes sold in as little as hours – and they expect that to happen today. But in most markets, that’s not the reality anymore.

It takes closer to 60 days to go from listed to sold, which is actually normal (see the gray in the graph below):

a graph of blue and grey barsIt just feels slower because they’re comparing it to the lightning-fast pace of 2020 and 2021.

Think of it like driving 65 mph on the highway, then exiting and going 25. It feels like you’re crawling, but it’s actually the right speed for where you are. That’s what other sellers can’t seem to get over. But you can get ahead of that, by knowing what to expect.

Today’s buyers are more intentional. They’re taking their time, weighing their options, and making thoughtful decisions, which is creating a much healthier housing market.

So, if you’re planning to sell, don’t expect it to happen instantly. And don’t assume your house won’t sell if it doesn’t go under contract in the first weekend.

It’s normal for these things to take time.

If you want to make sure your house sells as quickly as possible, talk to your agent about ways to stand out, whether that’s through staging, photography, or strategic pricing. With the right advice, the right price, and the right prep work, it can still sell quickly.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling, don’t let the market discourage you, let it guide you. The listings that didn’t sell this year weren’t doomed. They just started with the wrong strategy.

You can still win if you price right, are patient, and work with a local agent who knows how to position your home from the start.

Because in today’s market, success isn’t about waiting for conditions to change. It’s about getting your expectations right from day one.

The Housing Market Is Turning a Corner Going into 2026

After several years of high mortgage rates and hesitation from buyers, momentum is quietly building beneath the surface of the housing market. Sellers are reappearing. Buyers are re-engaging. And for the first time in what feels like forever, there’s movement happening again.

No, it’s not a surge. But it is a shift – and it’s one that could set the stage for a stronger year in 2026.

So, what’s driving the comeback? Here are three big trends that are slowly breathing life back into the housing market right now.

1. Mortgage Rates Have Been Coming Down

Mortgage rates are always going to have their ups and downs – that’s just how rates work. Especially with the general economic uncertainty right now, some volatility is to be expected. But, if you zoom out, it’s the larger trend that really matters most.

And overall, rates have been trending down for most of this year (see graph below):

a graph with a line and a green lineAnd in just the last few months, we’ve seen the best rates of 2025. According to Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac:

“On a median-priced home, this could allow a homebuyer to save thousands annually compared to earlier this year, showing that affordability is slowly improving.”

Here’s why that matters for you. This shift changes what you can actually afford. It means lower borrowing costs and more buying power. Take this as an example.

Data from Redfin shows a buyer with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford roughly $25,000 more home than they could one year ago. That’s a big deal. And it’s just one of the reasons why activity is picking up.

2. More Homeowners Are Ready To Sell

For a while, many homeowners stayed put because they didn’t want to give up their low mortgage rate. That “lock-in effect” kept inventory tight. And while plenty of homeowners are still staying where they are today, the number of rate-locked homeowners is starting to ease as rates come down. Life changes are becoming a bigger part of what’s driving more people to move, and that’s opening up more inventory.

Data from Realtor.com shows just how much the number of homes for sale has grown. And the really interesting part is that the market is approaching levels that haven’t been seen for the past six years (see the blue on the graph below):

a graph of growth in the yearThat return to more normal inventory levels is a really good thing. It gives buyers more options than they’ve had in years. And it’s helping to bring the market closer to balance.

3. More Buyers Are Re-Entering the Market

And it’s not just sellers making moves. With more options and slightly better affordability, buyers are getting back in the game, too. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports purchase applications are up compared to last year, a clear signal that demand is building again (see graph below):

a graph of blue and orange barsAnd experts think this momentum will continue. Economists from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) all forecast moderate sales growth going into 2026.

Now, this recovery won’t happen overnight. It’s not a flood of activity. But it is the start of steady improvement going into 2026. And that’s something a lot of people have been waiting for.

Bottom Line

After several slower-than-normal years, the market is finally starting to turn a corner. Declining mortgage rates, more listings, and growing buyer activity all point to a market gaining real traction.

Connect with a local real estate agent about what’s changing and how you can make the most of it in 2026.

Would You Let $80 a Month Hold You Back from Buying a Home?

A lot of buyers are stuck in “wait and see” mode right now. They’re watching rates hover a little above 6% and thinking, I’ll buy once they hit the 5s. Because who doesn’t want a better rate?

But here’s the thing: that 5.99% number might not save you as much as you think.

Affordability is still a challenge. There’s no question about that. But the market has given savvy buyers a head start. Mortgage rates have already come down over the past few months. And the drop we’ve seen saves you more than you’d think.

How Much You’ve Already Saved, Without Realizing It

Let’s put some real numbers to it. Rates peaked for the year in May when they inched above 7%. But since then, they’ve been slowly declining. Now, they’re sitting in the low 6s. And while that may not sound like a big deal, that change translates to real dollars.

According to data coming out of Redfin, the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down almost $400 since May.

That means if you’re buying a home now, you’re saving hundreds of dollars every month compared to what you would have been able to get earlier this spring. That’s real money that makes a real difference for buyers who paused their plans because they thought homeownership was out of reach.

And while it may be tempting to wait even longer to see bigger savings, that’s a gamble that could cost you. Here’s why.

Where Experts Say Rates Are Headed

For starters, most experts say mortgage rates are likely to stay pretty much where we are today throughout 2026. So, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a rate much lower than what we have now. Only one expert forecaster is saying rates could fall into the upper 5s next year (see graph below): 

a graph with numbers and linesAnd even if rates do dip below 6%, the extra savings you’re holding out for won’t move the needle as much as you might expect.

The Real Math Behind a 5.99% Rate

Let’s break it down. If rates come down to 5.99% from where they’ve been lately that’s a difference of only about $80 a month on an average priced home – give or take a bit based on your price point and the rate your lender quotes you (see chart below):

a blue and white rectangular table with white textEighty dollars. That’s it. And for the typical family, that’s about one dinner out (or one dinner in, if you have it delivered). That’s not enough to change the game for most buyers. But the savings of nearly $400 we already have compared to when you paused your search in the spring? That might be. 

So, the question to ask yourself is this:

Is an extra $80 savings really worth the wait?

Because while you’re holding out for that small dip, the bigger opportunity might be slipping away.

When Rates Fall, Competition Follows

Right now, you have more homes to choose from, sellers who are ready to negotiate to get a deal done, and fewer buyers to compete with. But once rates fall below 6%, buyer mindsets will shift and all of that will change.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that if rates hit 6%, about 5.5 million more households will be able to afford the median-priced home. Even if only a small fraction of them decide to buy, that could mean hundreds of thousands of buyers getting back into the market.

That creates more competition for you, which would push home prices even higher – maybe high enough to cancel out the extra savings you waited for.

So, if you’re waiting for rates below 6%, just keep in mind… that extra $80 may not be worth it in the grand scheme of things.

Bottom Line

You don’t have to wait for 5.99%. You have the chance to move (and save) right now. So, ask yourself: Would you let $80 hold you back from buying a home?

If you find a home you love and the math makes sense, getting ahead may be the best strategy. Connect with an agent or lender to run your numbers. That way you can see what you’re working with in your market.

Stay informed