Talk about the economy is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. That’s leaving a lot of people wondering what it means for the value of their home – and their buying power.
Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in the housing market during each recession, going all the way back to the 1980s. The facts may surprise you.
A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall
Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time the market saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since, mainly because inventory is still so low overall. Even in markets where the number of homes for sale has started to rise this year, inventory is still far below the oversupply of homes that led up to the housing crash.
In fact, according to data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below)
So, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.
Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions
While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):
So, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.
Bottom Line
The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. However, that doesn’t mean you have to worry about what it means for the housing market – or the value of your home. Historical data tells us what usually happens.
If you’re wondering how the current economy is impacting your local market, connect with an agent.
For a long time, the housing market was all sunshine for sellers. Homes were flying off the shelves, and buyers had to compete like crazy. But lately, things are starting to shift. Some areas are still super competitive for buyers, while others are seeing more homes sit on the market, giving buyers a bit more breathing room.
In other words, it’s a tale of two markets, and knowing which one you’re in makes a huge difference when you move.
What Is a Buyer’s Market vs. a Seller’s Market?
In a buyer’s market, there are a lot of homes for sale, and not as many people buying. With fewer buyers competing for these homes, that means they generally sit on the market longer, they might not sell for as much as they would in a seller’s market, and buyers have more room to negotiate.
On the flip side, in a seller’s market, there aren’t enough homes for sale for the number of buyers who are trying to purchase them. Homes sell faster, sellers often get multiple offers, and prices shoot higher because buyers are willing to pay more to win the home.
The Market Is Starting To Balance Out
For years, almost every market in the country was a strong seller’s market. That made it tough for buyers – especially first-timers. But now, things are shifting. According to Zillow, the national housing market is balancing out (see graph below):
The index used in this graph measures whether the national housing market is more of a seller’s market, buyer’s market, or neutral market – basically, whether it favors buyers, sellers, or if it’s not really swinging either way. Each month, the market is measured between 0 and 100. The closer to 100, the bigger the advantage sellers have.
The orange bars in the middle of the graph show the years when sellers had their strongest advantage, from 2020 to early 2022. But, as time has gone on, the market has become more balanced. It shifted from a strong seller’s market to a less intense one. And lately, it’s been neutral more than anything else (that’s the gray bars on the right side of the graph). That means buyers are gaining some negotiating power again.
In a more balanced or neutral market, homes tend to stay on the market a little longer, bidding wars are less common, and sellers may need to make more concessions – like price reductions or helping with closing costs. That shift gives today’s buyers more opportunities and less competition than a couple of years ago.
Why Are Things Changing?
Inventory plays a big role. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have more options – and that cools down home price growth. As data from Realtor.com shows, the supply of available homes for sale isn’t growing at the same rate everywhere (see graph below):
This graph shows how inventory has changed compared to last year (blue bars) and compared to 2017–2019 (red bars) in different regions of the country.
The South and West regions of the U.S. have seen big jumps in housing inventory in the past year (that’s the blue on the right). Both are almost back to pre-pandemic levels. That’s why more buyer’s markets are popping up there.
But in the Northeast and Midwest, inventory is still very low compared to pre-pandemic (that’s why those red bars are so big). That means those areas are more likely to stay seller’s markets for now.
What This Means for You
Every local market is different. Even if the national headlines say one thing, your town (or even your neighborhood) could be telling a totally different story.
Knowing which type of market you’re in helps you make smarter decisions for your move. That’s why working with a local real estate agent is so important right now.
As Zillow says:
“Agents are experts on their local markets and can craft buying or selling strategies tailored to local market conditions.”
Agents understand the unique trends in your area and can help you make the best choices, whether you’re buying or selling. With their expert strategies, you can move no matter which way the market is leaning, because they know how to navigate various levels of buyer competition, how to find hidden gems locally, how to price a house right, how to negotiate based on who has more leverage, and more.
Bottom Line
If you’re ready to make a move, or even just thinking about it, connect with a local real estate agent. They’d love to help you understand your local market and create a game plan that works for you.
What’s one thing you’re curious about when it comes to the market in your area?
When it feels like the cost of just about everything is rising, it’s only natural to wonder what that means for the housing market. Some people are even questioning whether more homeowners will struggle to make their mortgage payments, ultimately leading to a wave of foreclosures. And recent data showing foreclosure filings have increased is only feeding into this fear. But don’t let that scare you.
If you put the latest data into context, it’s clear there’s no reason to think this is a repeat of the last housing crash.
This Isn’t Like 2008
While it’s true that foreclosure filings ticked up in the latest quarterly report from ATTOM, they’re still lower than the norm – and way below levels seen during the crash. And it’s a lot easier to see if you graph that out.
If you compare Q1 2025 (on the right side of the graph) to what happened in the years surrounding the 2008 crash (shown in red), it’s clear the market is in a completely different place (see graph below):
Back then, risky lending practices left homeowners with mortgages they couldn’t afford. That led to a wave of foreclosures, which flooded the market with distressed properties, a surplus of inventory, and caused home prices to drop dramatically.
Today, lending standards are much stronger, and most homeowners are in a much better financial position. That’s why filings are so much lower this time.
And just in case you’re looking at 2020 and 2021 and thinking we’ve ramped up since then, here’s what you need to know. During those years, there was a moratorium designed to help millions of homeowners avoid foreclosure in challenging times. That’s why the numbers for just a few years ago were so incredibly low.
So don’t compare today to that low point. If you look at more normal years like 2017-2019, overall foreclosure filings are actually down from what’s typical – and way down from the volume during the crash.
Of course, no one wants to go through the process of foreclosure. And the recent increase is emotional because it’s real lives that are impacted – let’s not discount that. It’s just that, as a whole, this isn’t a signal of trouble in the market.
Why We Haven’t Seen a Big Surge in Foreclosures
And here’s something else to reassure you: homeowner equity. Over the past few years, home prices have risen significantly. That means today’s homeowners have built up a solid financial cushion. As Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM, explains:
“While levels remain below historical averages, the quarterly growth suggests that some homeowners may be starting to feel the pressure of ongoing economic challenges. However, strong home equity positions in many markets continue to help buffer against a more significant spike . . .”
Basically, if someone falls on hard times and can’t make their mortgage payments, they may be able to sell their home instead of going into foreclosure. That’s a huge contrast to 2008, when many people owed more than their homes were worth and had no choice but to walk away.
Don’t discount the strong equity footing most homeowners have today. As Rick Sharga Founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, explains in a recent Forbes article:
“ . . . a significant factor contributing to today’s comparatively low levels of foreclosure activity is that homeowners—including those in foreclosure—possess an unprecedented amount of home equity.”
Bottom Line
Even with the recent increase, foreclosure numbers are not at the levels seen during the 2008 crash. Plus, most homeowners today are in a much stronger equity position, even with rising costs.
If you are a homeowner who’s facing hardship, talk to your mortgage provider to explore your options.
It’s not really a surprise that 70% of buyers paused their home search last year. Maybe you were one of them. And if so, no judgment. Conditions just weren’t great.
Inventory was too low, prices were too high, and mortgage rates were bouncing all over. That made it really hard to find a home you loved – and could afford. And why sell if you’re not sure where you’re going to go?
But here’s the thing: the market’s shifting. And it might be time to hit play again.
The Inventory Sweet Spot
More homeowners are jumping back into their search to make a move this year. Builders are finishing more homes. And together, that’s creating more options for you when you move – maybe even the home you’ve been waiting for.
More homes = more possibilities.
But there’s more to it than that. When you sell, you don’t want to feel like it’s impossible to find your next home. At the same time, you also don’t want inventory to be so high, it takes ages for your house to sell. Right now, you’ll get the best of both worlds.
This data will help paint the picture for you.According to Realtor.com, inventory has jumped 28.5% since this time last year, but it’s still below pre-pandemic levels in most markets – and here’s why this is such a sweet spot (see graph below):
Basically, there are more homes to choose from when you make your move, but not so many that you’ll struggle to sell your current house. Your home should sell quickly if you work with an agent to make sure it’s priced right and prepped to impress.
More options. Less chaos. Solid demand: That’s the real sweet spot.
But here’s something else to consider. Data from Realtor.com also shows inventory has been on the rise for 17 straight months. And experts agree it’s likely to continue climbing throughout the year. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub explains:
“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.”
So, this may actually be the best time to sell. Your house may stand out more now than it would as the year goes on and inventory grows even more. Wait too long, and you may be one of many trying to stand out later this year.
Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting for the housing market to give you a sign – it just did. Whether you’re looking to move up, scale down, or relocate completely, this might be the best balance we’ve seen in a while.
What’s holding you back from taking advantage of this sweet spot? Connect with an agent to talk through it and see what’s possible.
So, don’t assume a recession will lead to a significant drop in home values. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising, just at a more normal pace.
So, a recession means rates could decline. And while that would help with your buying power, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.
