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The Five-Year Rule for Home Price Perspective

Headlines are saying home prices are starting to dip in some markets. And if you’re beginning to second guess your plans based on what you’re hearing in the media, here’s what you need to know.

It’s true that a few metros are seeing slight price drops. But don’t let that overshadow this simple truth. Home values almost always go up over time (see graph below):

a graph of a graph of salesWhile everyone remembers what happened around the housing crash of 2008, that was the exception – not the rule. It hadn’t happened before, and hasn’t since. There were many market dynamics that were drastically different back then, too. From relaxed lending standards to a lack of homeowner equity, and even a large oversupply of homes, it was very different from where the national housing market is today. So, every headline about prices slowing down, normalizing, or even dipping doesn’t need to trigger fear that another big crash is coming.

Here’s something that explains why short-term dips usually aren’t a long-term deal-breaker.

What’s the Five-Year Rule?

In real estate, you might hear talk about the five-year rule. The idea is that if you plan to own your home for at least five years, short-term dips in prices usually don’t hurt you much. That’s because home values almost always go up in the long run. Even if prices drop a bit for a year or two, they tend to bounce back (and then some) over time.

Take it from Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub:

“. . . there’s the ‘five-year rule of thumb’ in real estate—which suggests that most buyers can buffer themselves from mild short-term declines if they plan to own a property for at least that amount of time.”

What’s Happening in Today’s Market?

Here’s something else to put your mind at ease. Right now, most housing markets are still seeing home prices rise – just not as fast as they were a few years ago.

But in the major metros where prices are starting to cool off a little (the red bars in the graph below), the average drop is only about -2.9% since April 2024. That’s not a major decline like we saw back in 2008.

And when you look at the graph below, it’s clear that prices in most of those markets are up significantly compared to where they were five years ago (the blue bars). So, those homeowners are still ahead if they’ve been in their house for a few years or more (see graph below):

The Big Picture

Over the past 5 years, home prices have risen a staggering 55%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). So, a small short-term dip isn’t a significant loss. Even if your city is one where they’re down 2% or so, you’re still up far more than that.

And if you break those 5-year gains down even further, using data from the FHFA, you’ll see home values are up in every single state over the last five years (see map below):

a map of the united statesThat’s why it’s important not to stress too much about what’s happening this month, or even this year. If you’re in it for the long haul (and most homeowners are) your home is likely to grow in value over time.

Bottom Line

Yes, prices can shift in the short term. But history shows that home values almost always go up over five years. So, whether you’re thinking of buying or selling, remember the five-year rule, and take comfort in the long view.

When you think about where you want to be in five years, how does owning a home fit into that picture?

Connect with an agent to discuss how to get there.

Newly Built Homes May Be Less Expensive Than You Think

Do you think a brand-new home means a bigger price tag? Think again.

Right now, something unique is happening in the housing market. According to the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median price of newly built homes is actually lower than the median price for existing homes (ones that have already been lived in):

a graph of sales and pricesYou read that right. That brand new, never-been-lived-in house may cost less than the one built 20 years ago in a neighborhood just down the street. So, if you wrote off a new build because you assumed they’d be financially out of reach, here’s what you should know. You could be missing out on some of the best options in today’s housing market.

Why Are Newly Built Homes Less Expensive Right Now?

1. Builders Are Building Smaller Homes

Builders know that buyers are struggling with affordability today. So, instead of building big houses that may not sell, they’re building smaller ones that will. According to the Census, the average size of a newly built single-family home has dropped considerably over the past few years (see graph below):

a graph of a growing graphAnd as size goes down, the price often does too. Smaller homes use fewer materials, which makes them less expensive to build. That helps builders keep prices lower so more people can afford them.

2. Builders Are Offering Price Cuts and Incentives

In May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 34% of builders lowered their prices, with an average price drop of 5%. That’s because they want to be sure they’re selling the inventory they have before they build more.

On top of that, 61% of builders also offered sales incentives – like helping with closing costs or buying down your mortgage rate. These are all ways builders are making their homes more affordable, so these homes sell in today’s market.

Your Next Step? Ask Your Agent What’s Available Near You

If you’re trying to buy a home right now, be sure to talk to your agent to find out what builders are doing in and around your area. They can find new home communities, as well as builders who are offering incentives or discounts, and hidden gems you might not uncover on your own.

Plus, buying a newly built home often means there are different steps in the process than if you purchase a home that’s been lived in before. That’s why it’s so important to have your own agent who can explain the fine print. You want a pro in your corner to advocate for you, negotiate on your behalf, and make sure your best interests come first.

Bottom Line

You could get a home that’s brand new, with modern features, at a price that’s even lower than some older homes. Talk with a local real estate agent about what you’re looking for and see if a newly built home is the right fit for you.

If buying a home is on your to-do list, what would stop you from exploring newly built options?

The Secret To Selling Your House in Today’s Market

A few years ago, homes were flying off the shelves and getting multiple offers well over their asking price. It felt like you could name your price and still have buyers lined up at the door.

But today’s housing market is different. Buyers are getting more selective now that inventory has grown. Homes are sitting a little longer. And more sellers are having to cut their prices.

So, how do you still come out on top? It all starts with one thing, pricing your house right from the start. Today, that matters more than ever – and it can make or break your sale.

There’s a Real Price Disconnect Between Buyers and Sellers

A recent survey from Realtor.com shows 81% of home sellers believe they’ll get their asking price or more. But the actual sales data shows there’s a growing gap between what sellers expect and what buyers are actually willing to pay.

In fact, an annual report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 44% of recently sold homes went for less than the asking price. And 1 in 3 sellers had to cut their price at least once before the home sold. It’s a sign that expectations may be a little out of step with today’s reality.

Check out the graph below. It uses data from Redfin to show that asking prices (blue line) are higher than actual sales prices (green line) by a wider and wider margin:

a graph of sales and pricesThis tells you something important: not all buyers are willing to pay what many sellers are asking. That doesn’t mean you can’t sell for a great price – but it does mean you need to start with a price that reflects what people are willing to pay in today’s market.

What Happens When You Overprice Your House?

Pricing your house high initially may seem like a smart move, so you have more room to negotiate. But the reality is, an overpriced home can sit on the market and turn buyers away. 

Buyers are smart. And when they see a house that’s been sitting for a while, they start to wonder what’s wrong with it. That can lead to fewer showings, less interest, and eventually, a price cut to re-ignite attention. As Realtor.com explains: 

“By getting the right price early on, you can increase the odds buyers will be interested in the home. In turn, this decreases the chances the home will sit on the market for a lengthier timeline, also reducing the odds you’ll need to lower the listing price.”

The longer a house sits, the harder it can be to sell.

You Still Have a Great Opportunity – If You Price Your House Right 

To avoid making this mistake, it’s important to lean on an agent who knows what’s happening locally when you set your asking price. 

Your agent will look at recent local sales, buyer trends, and inventory levels to find that pricing sweet spot for your neighborhood – because it’s going to be different based on where you live.

And here’s something else to keep in mind, home prices have climbed more than 57% over the past five years. So, even if you price a bit below the number you had your sights set on, you’ll likely still be in a great position profit-wise.

With a local real estate agent’s help, you’ll attract more attention, avoid seeing your house sit on the market too long, and maximize your chances of getting a strong offer.

In today’s market, the right price works. As Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, explains:

“. . . the best properties, well priced are selling quickly in most of the country.”

Bottom Line

The market has changed, but your opportunity to sell hasn’t. You just need the right pricing plan. Talk to a local real estate agent to go over what’s happening with prices in your area and determine what price would help your house sell quickly and for top dollar.

Stocks May Be Volatile, but Home Values Aren’t

With all the uncertainty in the economy, the stock market has been bouncing around more than usual. And if you’ve been watching your 401(k) or investments lately, chances are you’ve felt that pit in your stomach. One day it’s up. The next day, it’s not. And that may make you feel a little worried about your finances.

But here’s the thing you need to remember if you’re a homeowner. According to Investopedia:

“Traditionally, stocks have been far more volatile than real estate. That’s not to say that real estate prices aren’t ever volatile—the years around the 2007 to 2008 financial crisis are just one memorable example—but stocks are more prone to large value swings.”

While your stocks or 401(k) might see a lot of highs and lows, home values are much less volatile.

A Drop in the Stock Market Doesn’t Mean a Crash in Home Prices

Take a look at the graph below. It shows what happened to home prices (the blue bars) during past stock market swings (the orange bars):

Even when the stock market falls more substantially, home prices don’t always come down with it.

Big home price drops like 2008 are the exception, not the rule. But everyone remembers that one. That stock market crash was caused by loose lending practices, subprime mortgages, and an oversupply of homes – a scenario that doesn’t exist today. That’s what made it so different.

In many cases before and after that time, home values actually went up while the stock market went down, showing that real estate is generally much more stable.

This graph shows how stock prices go up and down (the orange line), sometimes by more than 30% in a year. In contrast, home prices (the blue line) change more slowly (see graph below):

a graph of a price chartBasically, stock values jump around a lot more than home prices do. You can be way up one day and way down the next. Real estate, on the other hand, isn’t usually something that experiences such dramatic swings.

That’s why real estate can feel more stable and less risky than the stock market.

So, if you’re worried after the recent ups and downs in your stock portfolio, rest assured, your home isn’t likely to experience the same volatility.

And that’s why homeownership is generally viewed as a preferred long-term investment. Even if things feel uncertain right now, homeowners win in the long run.

Bottom Line

A lot of people are feeling nervous about their finances right now. But there’s one reason for you to feel more secure – your investment in something that’s stood the test of time: real estate.

Stay informed